A few more points from the UK Quarterly Beer Barometer:
- Over the past three years, off-trade beer volumes have been falling as well as on-trade ones, albeit much more slowly, and in 2010 were 2.5% lower than 2007
- In 1997, off-trade sales in Quarter 4 were over twice those in Quarter 1. However, in 2010 they were only 56% higher
- 2010 was the first year in which off-trade sales in Q2 exceeded those in Q4
- For every year from 2006, Q2 has been the highest for on-trade sales, and has exceeded Q4, which tended to be the peak in the past
- For both categories, not surprisingly, Q1 is always the weakest quarter
- Off-trade sales show much more volatility than the on-trade – in particular, why did they jump by 10% in 1999 when the years on either side were flat?
- Off-trade sales always show a big Q2 jump in World Cup years
- If on-trade sales had continued to decline from 2008 to 2010 at the same rate as 1997-2007, they would now be 12.5% higher, which is in line with my earlier estimates of the smoking ban having caused an “above trend” hit to pubs’ wet trade of between 10 and 15%
- If current trends continue, the “tipping point” at which off-trade consumption overtakes the on-trade will come at some time during 2012